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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP