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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(:11) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.39 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 14, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model