Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(:55) 16-M.Haack punts 25 yards to KC 45, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.56 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model