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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 10

Miami Dolphins 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.68 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP