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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 17

New York Jets 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Shotgun) 9-B.Petty pass incomplete deep right to 11-R.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP