Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 55

New York Jets 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:32) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to LAC 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-T.Benjamin for 91 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.02 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model