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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 57

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to LAC 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP