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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 8-D.Kaser punts 38 yards to NYJ 11, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 15 for 4 yards (43-M.Davis; 47-M.Windt).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model