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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 12

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(6:38) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 12, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model