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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 17

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Hilton (26-M.Canady).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.64 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.48 EP