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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(7:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles left guard to IND 41 for 7 yards (99-M.Judon).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model