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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 18

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(9:29) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker's 200th career FG. Now 200-for-222 FGA.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.18 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model