Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 68

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(:47) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-M.Campanaro MUFFS catch, recovered by BAL-43-J.Hill at BAL 30. 43-J.Hill to BAL 30 for no gain (52-B.Mingo).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.96 EP
78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model