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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Justin Tucker's 199th career field goal.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.09 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model