4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 64

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to DEN 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 87-J.Taylor to DEN 21 for 5 yards (47-Q.Dunbar).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.91 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model