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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 40

Denver Broncos 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to WAS 3, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-87-J.Taylor. PENALTY on WAS-47-Q.Dunbar, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced at WAS 3.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP