Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 84

Washington Commanders 20 – Denver Broncos 3

(6:43) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to DEN 38, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.07 EP
64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 84, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model