Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 60

Denver Broncos 3 – Washington Commanders 20

(9:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to WAS 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.78 EP
73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model