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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 82

Denver Broncos 3 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to WAS 34, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 40, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model