Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 74

Washington Commanders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to DEN 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 16-B.Fowler MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 10. 16-B.Fowler to DEN 16 for 6 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.72 EP
75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model