Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 80

Washington Commanders 10 – Denver Broncos 3

(1:00) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to DEN 43, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.03 EP
76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 80, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model