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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to WAS 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP