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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 35

Denver Broncos 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:39) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus punts 26 yards to WAS 9, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP