Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 0

(6:44) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CHI 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 43 for 28 yards (36-D.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model