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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 60

Chicago Bears 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-49-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.15 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model