4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 3 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(7:57) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CHI 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model