Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 86

Chicago Bears 20 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(9:27) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to CLE 45, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-J.Peppers to CHI 43 for 12 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson). FUMBLES (36-D.Houston-Carson), recovered by CLE-36-D.Smith at CHI 43. 36-D.Smith to CHI 45 for -2 yards (52-C.Jones). PENALTY on CLE-10-S.Coates, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 45. Penalty on CLE-80-R.Louis, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.13 EP
70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 86, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model