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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 65

Chicago Bears 20 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to CLE 28, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.92 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model