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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 15

Chicago Bears 13 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 24-Jo.Howard right guard to CLE 7 for 8 yards (21-J.Taylor). Penalty on CLE-22-J.Peppers, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.15 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model