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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 57

Chicago Bears 6 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:43) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to CLE 13, Center-49-A.DePaola. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 22 for 9 yards (53-J.Timu).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.81 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model