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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 59

Chicago Bears 6 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:29) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to CLE 22, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.23 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model