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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Buffalo Bills
4th & 2 at the 6
Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 3
What Actually Happened
(11:30) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor sacked at NE 12 for -6 yards (59-M.Flowers).
The Three Options
GO
+2.72 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
- 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 6, worth -0.28 EP
KICK
+1.50 EP
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
- 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT
-0.47 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
