4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 3

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 3, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP