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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 4-S.Hauschka 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model