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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 16 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 4-S.Hauschka 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.80 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP