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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 16

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model