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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 12

Buffalo Bills 13 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 4-S.Hauschka 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model