4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 4

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(:02) 4-S.Hauschka 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 4, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model