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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 22

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 1,601 career pts, 19th all-time to achieve that milestone.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.48 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP