Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 74

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(13:41) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.11 EP
54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model