Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

(4:54) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to NO 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Lewis to NO 17 for 7 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.43 EP
54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model