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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 20 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.33 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model