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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 20 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to ATL 33, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-A.Roberts to NO 48 for 19 yards (56-M.Mauti).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.05 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP