Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to NO 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 31 for 8 yards (40-D.Coleman). PENALTY on ATL-40-D.Coleman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.61 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model