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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 72

New Orleans Saints 13 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to ATL 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 21 for 8 yards (31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP