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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 89

New Orleans Saints 13 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to 50, Center-49-Z.Wood. 19-A.Roberts to NO 48 for 2 yards (86-J.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.06 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 89, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.72 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 46, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP