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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 12

New Orleans Saints 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 65-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram right guard to ATL 11 for 1 yard (45-D.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.02 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model