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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – New York Giants 29

What Actually Happened

(:24) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to NYG 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-K.Raymond to NYG 27 for 7 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.30 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -1.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model