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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 11

New York Giants 29 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 88-E.Engram. PENALTY on NYG-87-S.Shepard, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.59 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP