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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 2

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – New York Giants 29

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 4-J.Elliott 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 2, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP